底线统一何以可能：多元世界的共同底线与治理机制

中文摘要

全球风险跨境扩散并未自动消除价值分歧与行动分散，使以高阶价值同质化为前提的共同体实践面临明显限度。本文以“底线统一”概括这一过程：各方不必消除价值差异，却须围绕关乎人类生存、安全、尊严、发展与未来的不可突破边界形成最低共同判断，并落实为差异化责任与制度约束。文章提出四项识别标准，将底线归入存续、风险、正义、秩序四个层次八类领域；剖析认知不足、责任缺位、政治化、制度缺失、时间错位五类失守机制，识别地缘权力资本、算法认知茧房、短期选举利益三类阻滞力量及其制衡路径，构建“识别—共识—分责—嵌入—纠偏”五步治理机制，并对核风险、气候治理与致命性自主武器议题作结构化检验。研究表明，共同风险只有转化为稳定的公共知识、获得多元理由支持、完成正当化的分责并嵌入具备监测纠偏能力的制度，才可能形成最低秩序；底线统一并非以最低要求替代共同体高阶理想，而是为其提供防止崩塌的最低保障。

Abstract

The cross-border diffusion of global risks has not automatically eliminated value divergence and fragmentation of action, which places an evident limit on community-building practices premised on the homogenization of higher-order values. This paper uses "bottom-line unity" to capture the alternative approach: actors need not eliminate value differences, yet they must form minimal common judgments about the non-breakable boundaries that concern human survival, security, dignity, development, and the future, and translate those judgments into differentiated responsibilities and institutional constraints. The paper proposes four recognition criteria, categorizes bottom lines into eight domains within four tiers (existence, risk, justice, and order); analyzes five mechanisms of bottom-line failure (insufficient cognition, absent responsibility, politicization, institutional gaps, and temporal mismatch); identifies three types of blocking forces (geopolitical power capital, algorithmic cognitive cocoons, and short-term electoral interests) and the corresponding checks; and develops a five-step governance mechanism of bottom-line recognition, minimal consensus, responsibility allocation, institutional embedding, and violation correction, which is then applied to nuclear risk, climate governance, and lethal autonomous weapons systems. The study shows that shared risks can generate minimal order only when they are transformed into stable public knowledge, supported by plural reasons, distributed as legitimate and differentiated responsibilities, and embedded in institutions capable of monitoring and correction; bottom-line unity does not replace the higher-order ideals of the community but provides the minimal guarantee against their collapse.

关键词：底线共识；最低共识；全球风险；责任分配；人类命运共同体

Keywords: bottom-line unity; minimal consensus; global risks; responsibility allocation; Community with a Shared Future for Humanity