市场需求能力如何形成 ——青少年兴趣培育、品味资本与长期内需结构

中文摘要

在扩大消费由短期稳增长工具进一步转向完善居民消费长效机制的背景下，现有研究已从收入、财富、社会保障、预期、供给质量和消费环境等方面较充分地解释消费的实现条件，但对一个更前置的问题关注不足：消费者识别、理解、欣赏、参与并持续从差异化品类获得效用的能力如何形成。本文提出“需求侧品味资本”概念，将其界定为个体通过家庭、学校、同伴、媒体与反复参与积累的品类知识、鉴赏能力、参与技能、情感记忆与身份联结，并构建“成长阶段兴趣接触—品味资本积累—成年偏好与支付意愿—实现需求—市场厚度—产业细分”的传导框架。本文进一步提出需求形成的生命周期前置效应：儿童后期至青年早期是需求能力集中积累的重要阶段，进入独立收入和消费决策期后，早期存量更充分地转化为差异化服务需求。研究据此区分需求能力与购买力、跨期理性约束、供给条件及时间—空间可达性，并讨论教育社会化的需求端外溢、代际传递和供需吸收机制。欧洲足球、中国服务消费及数字文化消费等事实从不同侧面呈现了需求能力、市场厚度与服务消费结构之间的现实联系。本文认为，扩大消费的长期机制不仅在于改善当期购买条件，还应关注未来消费群体需求能力的前置形成。

Abstract

. Against the policy background in which expanding consumption has moved from short-term demand management toward the construction of a long-term household-consumption mechanism, existing studies have extensively examined income, wealth, social security, expectations, supply quality, and the consumption environment. Less attention has been paid to a more antecedent question: how consumers acquire the capacity to recognize, understand, participate in, and repeatedly derive utility from differentiated goods and services. This paper introduces demand-side taste capital, a durable stock of category-specific knowledge, appreciation, participation skills, emotional memories, and identity linkages accumulated through family, school, peers, media, and repeated participation. It develops a mechanism linking interest exposure in the formative years to taste-capital accumulation, preferences and willingness to pay after consumers gain greater income and decision autonomy, realized demand, market thickness, and industrial differentiation. The paper further proposes a life-cycle antecedence effect: late childhood through early youth is an important period of concentrated accumulation, while the economic effects of that stock are more fully released after independent income and consumption decision-making emerge, and are reconfigured rather than eliminated in later life. The framework distinguishes demand capacity from purchasing power, intertemporal constraints, supply conditions, and time–space accessibility, and discusses demand-side spillovers of education, intergenerational transmission, and demand-side absorption of new supply. Descriptive evidence from European football, Chinese service consumption, and digital cultural consumption provides real-world support for different links in the proposed mechanism. The paper concludes that a long-run consumption strategy should address not only current purchasing conditions but also the antecedent formation of demand capacity among future consumer cohorts.

关键词：需求能力；需求侧品味资本；青少年兴趣；生命周期；消费长效机制

Keywords: demand capacity; demand-side taste capital; adolescent interests; life cycle; long-term consumption mechanism