人本有效需求约束、产品更新周期与产业增长边界 ——一个可扩展的分析框架及中国耐用消费品市场的证据

中文摘要

生产能力并不自动转化为产业增长。本文构建“人本有效需求约束”分析框架，将产业可实现需求分解为一组主要约束的筛选器。以需求边界D、消费能力B/p、购买/更新机会R为基干约束，视产业与市场特征纳入使用环境支持度E、制度与文化准入I及预期与政策信号A等扩展约束。两品类最优化模型表明，耐用品最优购买量具有min结构：当预算约束主导时，收入和降价能够扩大销量；当需求或更新约束生效后，购买力的边际销量效应出现折点。本文进一步将S/T限定为成熟市场、稳定年龄结构下的稳态近似，并以历史销量与退役风险函数刻画一般更新需求，从而区分新品扩散与存量更新。利用2025年中国居民耐用品、时间利用和汽车市场数据进行结构性校准发现，冰箱、洗衣机接近户均稳定，空调和汽车仍有存量扩张；新能源汽车占汽车存量12.01%，却占新注册汽车49.38%，表明同一产业可以并存“总量趋熟”与“新品类扩散”。本文进一步将出口纳入需求包络，区分国内有效需求、可持续出口与产能规划之间的关系。据此，本文提出以“国内有效需求包络+可持续出口”进行产能压力测试，识别增长究竟来自渗透、更新、升级、环境改善、准入变化还是市场外拓。本文据此将“增长上限”转化为可测量、可证伪的产业需求边界，为耐用品产能规划、以旧换新和国际市场进入提供分析工具。

Abstract

Production capacity does not automatically translate into sustainable industrial growth. This paper develops an analytical framework of "human-centered effective demand constraints," decomposing realizable industrial demand into a set of primary constraint filters. With Demand Boundary (D), Budget Capacity (B/p), and Replacement/Purchase Opportunity (R) as core constraints, the framework incorporates Enabling Environment (E), Institutional and Cultural Access (I), and Anticipation/Policy Signals (A) as extensible constraints depending on industry and market characteristics. A two-good optimization model shows that optimal durable purchases exhibit a min structure and a kink: once a use or replacement ceiling binds, further relaxation of the budget constraint no longer raises purchases proportionally. The paper further replaces the mechanical S/T rule with a general replacement equation in which current replacement demand is a convolution of historical sales and age-specific retirement hazards; S/E(T) is retained only as a steady-state approximation for mature markets. Using China's 2025 official statistics, the paper shows substantial heterogeneity across durable categories. Refrigerators and washing machines are close to one unit per household, while air conditioners and household cars still exhibit stock expansion. New-energy vehicles account for only 12.01% of the automobile stock but 49.38% of new registrations, demonstrating that aggregate-market maturation and rapid subcategory diffusion can coexist within the same industry. The paper further incorporates exports into the demand envelope, distinguishing between domestic effective demand, sustainable exports, and capacity planning. The framework provides an operational way to distinguish growth driven by diffusion, replacement, upgrading, environmental improvement, access expansion, and market expansion, offering implications for capacity planning, trade-in policies, and international market entry assessment.

关键词：人本有效需求；耐用消费品；产品更新；产业增长边界；产能预警；开放经济

Keywords: human-centered effective demand; consumer durables; product replacement; industrial growth boundary; capacity risk warning; open economy