当代资本主义的四重结构性困境及其耦合机制 ——一种系统动力学分析

中文摘要

当代资本主义的危机并非若干孤立问题的简单叠加。本文以系统动力学为分析方法，提出积累—分配、资本—民主时间、市场化—社会信任、积累—生态边界四重结构性困境。所谓“结构性困境”，不是指资本主义不存在修正空间，而是指某些张力会被其常态激励反复再生产，纠偏依赖再分配、劳动制度、反垄断、长期公共投资和生态规制等反向制度力量。本文以“制度化私善优先”概括产权、竞争与激励结构对自利行为的选择和放大，揭示四重困境之间的正反馈耦合及负反馈的条件性。北欧经验表明，制度差异能够显著改变困境强度，但修复机制具有政治条件性与可逆性。

Abstract

The crisis of contemporary capitalism is not a simple accumulation of isolated problems. This paper employs system dynamics as an analytical method to propose four structural dilemmas: accumulation–distribution, capital–democracy time, marketization–social trust, and accumulation–ecological boundaries. By "structural dilemmas," it is meant not that capitalism has no room for correction, but that certain tensions are repeatedly reproduced by the system's routine incentives, with corrections relying on countervailing institutional forces such as redistribution, labor institutions, antitrust, long-term public investment, and ecological regulation. This paper uses the concept of "institutionalized primacy of private interests" to summarize the selection and amplification of self-interested behavior by property rights, competition, and incentive structures, revealing the positive-feedback coupling among the four dilemmas and the conditional nature of negative feedback. The Nordic experience demonstrates that institutional differences can significantly alter the intensity of these dilemmas, but the remedial mechanisms are politically conditional and reversible.

关键词：当代资本主义；结构性困境；制度化私善优先；系统动力学；正反馈

Keywords: contemporary capitalism; structural dilemmas; institutionalized primacy of private interests; system dynamics; positive feedback